Oil prices set for 3% weekly gain amid eased recession concerns

Oil prices saw a modest increase in Asian trading on Friday, heading towards a weekly gain of over 3%. This upward trend is attributed to calming concerns over demand, following positive US jobs data, and persistent worries about escalating tensions in the Middle East.

By 0651 GMT, Brent crude futures had edged up by 2 cents, or 0.03%, reaching USD 79.18 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 10 cents, standing at USD 76.29 per barrel. Both benchmarks were on track for a weekly increase exceeding 3%.

Independent market analyst Tina Teng noted that “risk sentiment recovered from the market rout in the Asian session today,” partly due to China’s inflation data, which showed a slight acceleration in consumer price index (CPI) growth. In July, China’s CPI rose by 0.5% from the previous year, surpassing the 0.3% increase forecasted by economists in a Reuters poll. This uptick in inflation, however, was attributed mainly to weather-related disruptions affecting food supplies, with limited signs of improved consumer demand.

In the US, a decline in new jobless claims provided relief, easing recession fears. Data indicated a larger-than-expected drop in new unemployment benefits applications, suggesting a more resilient labor market than previously feared. Despite a stronger dollar, which typically exerts downward pressure on oil prices, the impact was mitigated as dollar-denominated crude became costlier for foreign buyers.

Geopolitical concerns also supported oil prices. Recent escalation in the Gaza Strip, with Israeli airstrikes resulting in significant casualties, has intensified fears of a broader regional conflict. The killing of senior Hamas and Hezbollah members last week has increased speculation of potential retaliatory actions from Iran, affecting oil supply from the Middle East. Additionally, ongoing attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants on international shipping near Yemen have further heightened market uncertainties.

Libya’s National Oil Corp. also contributed to the price rise by declaring force majeure at its Sharara oilfield due to protests, impacting production levels. In Saudi Arabia, recent political developments, including King Salman’s delegation of cabinet responsibilities to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have added to the geopolitical backdrop influencing oil markets.

Key oil trading hub Singapore was closed for a public holiday, adding to the overall market dynamics.