Oil prices poised for fourth consecutive week of gains 

The global oil market is showing resilience as prices continue their upward trajectory, marking what appears to be the fourth consecutive week of gains. Despite a minor dip on Friday, both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures are hovering near their highest levels since late April, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces and geopolitical factors.

As of Friday morning, Brent crude futures experienced a slight decline of 31 cents, or 0.4%, settling at USD 87.12 per barrel. This minor setback does little to overshadow the impressive 7% increase Brent has achieved over the past four weeks. Similarly, U.S. WTI crude futures saw a modest decrease of 18 cents, or 0.2%, reaching USD 83.70. WTI has outpaced Brent in recent weeks, posting a robust 9% gain over the same period.

The slight downturn on Friday can be attributed in part to thin trading volumes, as the U.S. market remained closed on Thursday for the Fourth of July holiday. However, this temporary lull has not dampened the overall bullish sentiment in the oil market.

A primary driver behind the recent price surge has been the anticipation of strong summer fuel demand in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. This expectation has been bolstered by positive mobility indicators, suggesting increased travel and fuel consumption as the peak summer season unfolds.

Adding to the upward pressure on prices are intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a region crucial to global oil supply. Market analysts at ANZ Research highlighted these factors as key contributors to the current market sentiment.

Further supporting the bullish trend, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a substantial 12.2 million barrel draw in inventories last week. This figure far exceeded analysts’ expectations of a 700,000-barrel draw, indicating stronger-than-anticipated demand or potential supply constraints.

On the economic front, recent U.S. data revealed an increase in first-time unemployment benefit applications and a rise in jobless numbers. While typically seen as negative economic indicators, some analysts suggest these developments could potentially accelerate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Such a move could indirectly support oil markets by stimulating economic activity and fuel demand.

Supply-side dynamics are also playing a role in the current market scenario. Reports indicate that Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil are planning significant cuts to oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in July. This reduction in supply from a major oil-producing nation could further tighten the global oil market.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Saudi Aramco, has reduced the price for its flagship Arab Light crude for August delivery to Asia. This price cut reflects the pressure faced by OPEC producers as non-OPEC supply grows, potentially signalling a more competitive market environment.

Market participants are also keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments, including the ongoing conflict in Gaza and upcoming elections in France and the United Kingdom. These events have the potential to influence global economic sentiment and, by extension, oil demand.